National Bank of Serbia Governor reports gold reserves above 50 tonnes and projects inflation to return to 3% by year end

The National Bank of Serbia published Governor Jorgovanka Tabaković’s remarks at an investor conference, setting out Serbia’s investment backdrop and the central bank’s macroeconomic priorities. She highlighted that Serbia’s foreign exchange reserves now include over 50 tonnes of gold, reaffirmed a focus on relative dinar-euro exchange rate stability, and pointed to the May projection that inflation will continue to slow and approach the 3% target by the end of the year. Data cited in the remarks included fixed investment rising from around 16% of GDP in 2014 to over 24% after ten years, alongside government investment increasing from 2.2% to over 7.3% of GDP. The Governor referenced almost 400,000 more formally employed people, an unemployment rate reduced to 8.6% from over 20%, and average real GDP growth close to 4% over the past seven years, with 3.9% growth last year. Foreign direct investment was described as averaging about EUR 4 billion annually over the past seven years (around 6.8% of GDP), with a record EUR 5.2 billion last year, around 55% directed to export-oriented sectors, and about 80% made up of equity investment and reinvested profits. The speech also noted foreign exchange reserves covering close to seven months of imports, Serbia’s entry into the SEPA area, and developments in the payments space including the Dina card partnership with Discover. On monetary policy, the Governor said easing started in June 2024 but has been cautious and policy should remain restrictive for some time, while noting year-on-year lending growth of 10.5% in April. She added that the central bank’s now-cast for May inflation supports the projected disinflation path, with official May inflation data due for publication on Thursday.