The Czech National Bank published a presentation by Board Member Jakub Seidler setting out its Czech economic outlook for 2026 to 2027 and the Spring 2026 macroeconomic forecast. The central case is for headline inflation to stay in the upper half of the tolerance band in the coming quarters, rise to 3% around the turn of the year, and return to target at the end of 2027. Gross domestic product is projected to grow by 2.5% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, with private consumption remaining the main driver. Core inflation is expected to stay around 3% this year, driven by imputed rent and above-average wage growth. First quarter 2026 GDP growth came in at 0.2% quarter on quarter and 2.1% year on year, below the forecast of 0.5% quarter on quarter, although the presentation notes that later releases could revise this up. As foreign demand strengthens, investment growth is expected to accelerate and net exports to improve, while government spending also contributes positively. The forecast assumes CZK 24.3 per EUR in the second quarter of 2026 and then broad stability around CZK 24.4 per EUR. The near-term outlook for 3M PRIBOR was revised slightly higher, while the Bank Board kept policy rates unchanged at its May monetary policy meeting because of exceptional uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict. The presentation also highlights sharp energy price increases after tensions in the Middle East and the Hormuz closure, with higher energy prices identified as a key risk that would weaken growth and lift inflation.
Czech National Bank2026-05-28
Czech National Bank presents Spring 2026 forecast with inflation returning to target by end 2027 and GDP growth at 2.5% in 2026
The Czech National Bank published a presentation by Board Member Jakub Seidler outlining its Spring 2026 macroeconomic forecast and outlook for 2026–2027, projecting headline inflation to stay in the upper half of the tolerance band in the near term, reach 3% around year-end, and return to target by end-2027. GDP is forecast to grow by 2.5% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, driven mainly by private consumption, stronger foreign demand, higher investment and improved net exports. The near-term 3M PRIBOR path was revised slightly higher, but policy rates were left unchanged in May amid exceptional uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict. The forecast assumes a broadly stable exchange rate around CZK 24.4 per EUR and highlights higher energy prices following Middle East tensions and the Hormuz closure as a key risk that would weaken growth and raise inflation.