Bank of Guatemala Holds Monetary Policy Rate at 3.50%

The Monetary Board of the Bank of Guatemala unanimously held the monetary policy rate at 3.50%, saying the decision reflected inflation that remains within target and a still-positive domestic growth outlook despite higher external uncertainty and imported price pressures. The Board said short-term domestic indicators remained positive, consistent with its 2026 growth estimate of 3.1% to 5.1%, although a longer-lasting external supply shock in domestic fuel and energy prices could affect Guatemala’s economic outlook this year. Headline inflation rose to 3.24% in April 2026 from 2.50% in March but stayed within the Board’s 4.0% plus or minus 1 percentage point target, and the Board said inflation forecasts and expectations still point to inflation remaining on target in 2026 and 2027, even as risks are tilted upward by uncertainty over the Middle East conflict and the possibility that El Niño could affect domestic weather conditions. Globally, the Board said world growth prospects remain positive, supported by resilient private consumption and still-favorable international financial conditions, but noted greater uncertainty and downside risks as the prolonged geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has constrained Persian Gulf energy supply and driven sharp increases in international oil prices, with effects already appearing in global inflation. The Board said it will continue to closely monitor external and domestic indicators and take the measures needed to keep inflation