International Monetary Fund management approved the completion of the third review of Equatorial Guinea’s non-financing Staff Monitored Program, judging implementation to be solid under a reform agenda aimed at adjusting the economy to structurally lower hydrocarbon output. The Staff Monitored Program is an informal arrangement between the authorities and IMF staff and does not entail endorsement by the IMF Executive Board. Economic activity is estimated to have contracted by 6.4 percent in 2025 amid a sharp fall in hydrocarbon production, with the economy projected to slightly shrink in the medium term as output continues to decline; inflation fell to 2.6 percent in October 2025 from a peak of 3.5 percent in March 2023. Fiscal policy remained aligned with the objective of a 2025 non-hydrocarbon primary balance of -17.8 percent of non-hydrocarbon GDP, while public debt is expected to have risen from 36.4 percent of GDP in 2024 to 39.2 percent at end-2025; further fiscal adjustment is planned to keep debt below 50 percent of GDP and restore external balance as hydrocarbon revenues decline, against a backdrop of continued negative contributions to regional foreign reserves. All end-June 2025 quantitative conditionality was met and three structural benchmarks were achieved, including approval of a 2026 budget consistent with program objectives; two of four end-September 2025 structural benchmarks were met, and work continued on measures such as strengthening tax and customs administration and securing regional regulatory approval for a domestic arrears clearance plan. The authorities are seeking to build a track record for IMF Upper Credit Tranche financial assistance, with further progress hinging on governance reforms including publication of a hydrocarbon sector transparency report, which is already under preparation.
International Monetary Fund 2026-02-06
International Monetary Fund approves completion of the third review of Equatorial Guinea’s staff monitored program
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the third review of Equatorial Guinea’s non-financing Staff Monitored Program, noting solid implementation amid a reform agenda to adjust to lower hydrocarbon output. Economic activity contracted by 6.4% in 2025, with fiscal policy targeting a non-hydrocarbon primary balance of -17.8% of GDP, while public debt rose to 39.2% of GDP; further fiscal adjustments are planned to keep debt below 50% of GDP as hydrocarbon revenues decline.