The Czech National Bank’s September survey of 18 analysts shows that the average one-year inflation forecast remained at 2.6%, while the three-year outlook rose by 0.1 percentage point to 2.2%. Analysts expect inflation to accelerate and exceed the upper boundary of the central bank’s tolerance band in the first quarter of 2027, driven by high energy and agricultural commodity prices, fading base effects and a turnaround in food prices. Most expect the two-week repo rate to remain at its current 3.75% level in one year, although more respondents now forecast a rise to 4.00%. GDP growth forecasts were unchanged at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.4% for 2027, with domestic demand and investment supporting activity while weak euro area demand remains a constraint. Analysts cut their 2026 nominal wage growth forecast by 0.4 percentage point to 6.6% following weaker second-quarter data and revisions to earlier figures, but retained the 2027 forecast of 5.7%. Forecasts for Prague Interbank Offered Rate and interest rate swaps moved higher, while the koruna is expected to appreciate gradually to CZK 24.09 per euro over one year.
Czech National Bank survey shows higher three-year inflation outlook and stable policy rate expectations
The Czech National Bank’s analyst survey left the one-year inflation forecast at 2.6% but raised the three-year outlook to 2.2%. Most respondents expect the two-week repo rate to remain at 3.75% in one year, despite growing inflation risks. GDP forecasts were unchanged, while the 2026 wage growth estimate fell to 6.6%.