International Monetary Fund concludes Republic of Congo post-financing assessment and judges repayment capacity adequate but with significant risks

The International Monetary Fund Executive Board concluded the 2026 Post-Financing Assessment for the Republic of Congo, finding that the recovery softened in 2025 and that fiscal, external and debt vulnerabilities intensified amid fiscal slippage, a heightened sovereign-bank nexus and liquidity tensions in regional treasury markets. The Board assessed Congo’s capacity to repay the IMF as adequate but subject to significant risks, and pressed for stronger budget discipline, sustained fiscal consolidation and faster structural reforms. Economic growth was 2.1 percent in 2024 and an estimated 2.4 percent in 2025, while the current account deficit widened to 5.8 percent of GDP in 2025 and inflation averaged 2.6 percent. Fiscal pressures rose as the 2025 non-hydrocarbon primary deficit widened to 8.7 percent of non-hydrocarbon GDP, with spending overruns and lower oil prices contributing, and total public debt was estimated at 97.2 percent of GDP at end-2025 alongside newly accumulated domestic and external arrears. Directors highlighted risks from large rollover needs and tight regional credit markets, including the potential for sizeable funding gaps if banks’ appetite for Congolese treasuries weakens or oil prices fall, and called for stronger domestic revenue mobilization, tighter expenditure controls, full implementation of the SIGFIP financial management information system, strengthened debt management and transparency with a reliance on concessional financing, improved governance and anti-corruption frameworks, and enhanced bank oversight and enforcement of prudential standards given rising sovereign exposures. Directors urged the authorities to maintain strong engagement with the IMF as these measures are pursued.