The European Central Bank published an updated wage tracker based on collective bargaining agreements signed through end-May 2026, with the forward-looking horizon still running to December 2026. The main signal for 2026 was broadly unchanged from the previous release. The tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments continues to indicate negotiated wage growth of 2.6% in 2026, while the headline measure with smoothed one-off payments shows 2.3% for the year. The updated data point to easing wage pressures relative to 2025. The headline tracker shows 3.2% negotiated wage growth in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, based on employee coverage of 51.5% and 43.2% respectively. The measure excluding one-off payments falls from 3.8% in 2025 to 2.6% in 2026, indicating more moderate negotiated base wage dynamics. Within 2026, the headline series rises from 1.8% in the first quarter to 2.6% in the third and fourth quarters as the mechanical downward effect from large one-off payments made in 2024 fades, while the unsmoothed measure is more stable at 2.9% in the first quarter, 2.6% in the second quarter and 2.5% in the second half. The ECB also noted that the forward-looking component is conditional on currently available agreements, is subject to revision and should not be interpreted as a forecast. The forward-looking horizon remains capped at December 2026 in this release. As coverage of contracts extending beyond 2026 increases, the ECB expects the July 2026 data release to extend the tracker to the first quarter of 2027.

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