The Bank of Finland has raised its economic growth projections for 2026 and 2027 after stronger than expected performance in the first half of 2026, led by exports and private investment. Gross domestic product is forecast to grow by 1.7% in 2026, 1.6% in 2027 and 1.3% in 2028. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 10.4% in 2026 before falling to 9.8% in 2027 and 9.0% in 2028 as labor demand recovers. Inflation is projected to reach 2.4% in 2026 as the Middle East conflict raises energy prices, before declining to 1.4% in 2027 and rising to 1.8% in 2028. The forecast assumes that the energy price increase will be temporary and have a moderate effect on other prices. Risks to growth are balanced, with stronger corporate investment and consumption presenting upside potential, while a more severe energy shock linked to the Iran conflict could weaken the outlook.
2026-09-15Bank of Finland
Bank of Finland raises 2026 and 2027 GDP growth forecasts to 1.7% and 1.6%
The Bank of Finland raised its GDP growth forecasts to 1.7% for 2026 and 1.6% for 2027 as exports and private investment strengthen. Unemployment is expected to decline gradually from 10.4% in 2026, while energy prices will temporarily lift inflation to 2.4%. A prolonged Middle East conflict could keep energy prices elevated and weaken growth.