Bank for International Settlements research finds wavelike shifts in US dollar denomination of international debt securities

The Bank for International Settlements published BIS Paper No 165 analysing how the US dollar’s share in the currency denomination of international debt securities has evolved, using a BIS-compiled security-level global database. The paper concludes there is no steady dollarisation or de-dollarisation trend; instead, the dollar’s share has moved in recurring “waves”, including three distinct waves since the 1960s. International debt securities outstanding rose from USD 2 billion in 1970 to USD 30 trillion by end-2024. Over 2000–24, the dollar’s share in outstanding stocks fell from about 60% in the early 2000s to about 43% in 2008, then recovered to about 60% by the latter half of the 2010s, leaving the 2024 share close to its level at the euro’s launch in 2000. The euro experienced a pre-global financial crisis “euro moment”, rising from 16% in 2000 to around 30% in 2008–09 before falling to around 22–23% in 2012–13 and stabilising, with the rise and subsequent slowdown in euro issuance largely driven by banks and non-bank financial institutions. The results are presented as robust to exchange-rate valuation effects, alternative sample definitions (including intra-euro area euro issuance and excluding own-currency issuance) and compositional shifts, and the paper also notes sticky country-level patterns such as emerging market issuers’ persistent preference for dollar issuance and a modest but rising renminbi share that by 2024 exceeded the Swiss franc’s and rivalled the Japanese yen’s.