The Federal Reserve Board published a research note estimating the broader US buy now pay later market across six major providers from 2019 to 2025. Using publicly disclosed company data, it estimates that BNPL providers originated USD 156.7 billion of consumer credit products in 2025, with pay in 4 plans contributing USD 78.3 billion, or 50 percent, and other short and longer-term installment loans making up the rest. The note also estimates that 63 percent of 2025 BNPL issuance carried 0 percent APR. The note finds that pay in 4 issuance was nearly 80 percent above the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau's latest 2023 measurement of USD 43.9 billion, while longer-term installment loans expanded at a similar pace and short-term installment lending also accelerated. In 2025, Afterpay's parent Block and PayPal jointly accounted for 70 percent of pay in 4 volume, while Block and Affirm together originated about USD 95 billion across all BNPL products, or 60 percent of total issuance. Affirm and Block also dominated APR-bearing BNPL products, representing more than 90 percent of that segment.
Federal Reserve Board2026-06-05
Federal Reserve Board research estimates US BNPL originations at USD 156.7 billion in 2025 with pay in 4 plans accounting for half
The Federal Reserve Board published a research note estimating that six major buy now pay later providers originated USD 156.7 billion of consumer credit in 2025, with pay in 4 plans accounting for USD 78.3 billion and 63 percent of total issuance at 0 percent APR. The note finds pay in 4 volumes were nearly 80 percent above the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s 2023 estimate, and that Block and PayPal held 70 percent of pay in 4 volume, while Block and Affirm together accounted for about USD 95 billion, or 60 percent of total issuance and over 90 percent of APR-bearing products.