The National Bank of Ukraine published its August Business Outlook Survey, showing that firms’ expectations for their own economic performance remained cautious but improved both month on month and year on year. The composite business activity expectations index (BAEI) rose to 49.0 from 48.3 in July 2025 and 48.4 in August 2024, remaining below the neutral 50 level. Positive sentiment was supported by brisk consumer demand, energy stability, decelerating inflation and seasonal factors, while expectations were weighed down by continued destruction of production facilities and infrastructure, reconstruction costs, raw materials and labour costs, higher electricity tariffs for businesses, complicated logistics and shortages of skilled workers. Construction recorded the strongest outlook (54.0), with expectations of higher volumes and orders and only sector-wide hiring intentions; trade remained positive (51.8) on consumer sentiment and new harvest supply; industry stayed slightly below neutral (48.7) amid reconstruction pressures; and services remained the most guarded (47.0), despite being less downbeat on new orders. The survey was conducted from 4 August to 21 August 2025 across 578 companies, and the NBU noted the results reflect respondents’ opinions rather than the central bank’s assessment. The next survey results (for September 2025) are scheduled for publication on the first business day of October 2025.
National Bank of Ukraine 2025-09-01
National Bank of Ukraine reports August business activity expectations index rising to 49.0 while remaining below neutral
The National Bank of Ukraine's August Business Outlook Survey indicates cautious but improved economic performance expectations among firms, with the composite business activity expectations index rising to 49.0. Positive sentiment was driven by consumer demand and energy stability, while challenges included infrastructure destruction and rising costs. Construction showed the strongest outlook, while services remained the most cautious.