Central Bank of Colombia publishes working paper estimating 1% freight volume declines and 1% cost increases during Pan-American Highway closures

The Central Bank of Colombia has released a Regional and Urban Economics Working Paper assessing how natural-disaster-related closures on the Pan-American Highway affect cargo movements and logistics costs. Using monthly data, the study estimates that months with at least one closure are associated with roughly a 1% fall in freight volumes on the corridor and an around 1% increase in average cost per kilogram. The authors construct a 2017–2024 monthly database combining closure records from the National Roads Institute (Invias) with shipment quantities and costs from the National Cargo Dispatch Registry (RNDC) for municipalities directly connected by the corridor, and apply a gravity model with dyadic fixed effects and origin-municipality-specific trends. The paper identifies 128 closures over the period, more than 70% linked to landslides and rockfalls, with repeated disruptions on stretches including La Pintada–Medellín and Dabeiba–Santa Fe de Antioquia; closure counts peak in 2018 and drop markedly in 2024. It links the relatively small but statistically significant effects to partial rerouting and the generally short duration of most closures, and points to mitigation priorities such as slope stabilisation, drainage works, protection of detours and stronger response capacity to reduce closure duration. The central bank notes the paper is provisional and reflects the authors’ views rather than those of the institution or its board.