Greece's Ministry of National Economy and Finance warns prolonged Strait of Hormuz closure could become the largest energy crisis in history and highlights a 4.9% of GDP primary surplus

Greece's Ministry of National Economy and Finance published a speech by Minister Kyriakos Pierrakakis, delivered at a dinner linked to the 3rd Maritime Security Conference in Athens, focusing on geopolitical shocks and their economic and policy implications. Pierrakakis framed the Strait of Hormuz as the current global “choke point” and argued that European crisis responses should rely on temporary and targeted support measures that do not cut across monetary policy. Using comparisons with past crises, he cited oil supply losses of 13 million barrels per day versus around 10 million in the 1973 and 1979 episodes, and an annualised natural gas shortfall of 110 billion cubic metres versus a 75 billion cubic metre drop following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He also pointed to wider trade effects beyond oil and gas, including fertilisers, helium and petrochemicals, and said the economic impact is already visible in fuel prices. Resolution, from a euro area finance minister’s perspective, was described as depending on how quickly the strait reopens, the depth of the disruption, including damage to 80 energy infrastructures with 30 seriously affected, and the post-reopening regime, which he said would be reflected in risk pricing. The speech also set out broader priorities, including the need for internationally coordinated governance of artificial intelligence and a more coherent European technology and industrial policy that builds “European champions”, illustrated by Europe’s fragmented approach to 5G spectrum auctions and Greece’s use of 25% of its auction proceeds to fund 5G applications through the “Phaistos” fund alongside free spectrum access for start-ups and universities. Pierrakakis pointed to Greece’s reported primary surplus of 4.9% of GDP, the expansion of digital public services to more than 2,200, and energy-sector developments including a roughly EUR 4bn capital increase at Public Power Corporation and Greece becoming a net exporter of electricity, while highlighting the strategic relevance of a north-south LNG corridor. He also linked EU financial integration initiatives, including the Savings and Investments Union, the Banking Union, the Capital Markets Union and the digital euro, to an International Monetary Fund estimate of an additional 5 to 7 growth units per year for each Member State.