South African Reserve Bank reports March rise in the leading business cycle indicator and February declines in coincident and lagging indicators

The South African Reserve Bank published its composite business cycle indicators, showing the composite leading indicator increased by 1.1% in March 2025, while the composite coincident and lagging indicators decreased by 0.5% and 0.8% respectively in February 2025. The leading indicator rose to 115.4 (2019 = 100), with five of seven available components increasing. The largest positive contributions came from an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate of real M1 money supply and a rise in residential building plans approved, alongside higher job advertisements (six-month smoothed growth), a higher commodity price index for South Africa’s main export commodities (USD-based), and a wider interest rate spread (10-year government bonds minus 91-day Treasury bills). Offsetting factors were decelerations in new passenger vehicle sales (six-month smoothed growth) and in the composite leading indicator for major trading-partner countries (12-month percentage change). The coincident indicator fell to 94.7, reflecting lower real wholesale, retail and motor trade sales, weaker industrial production, and reduced manufacturing capacity utilisation; the lagging indicator fell to 106.1. The Reserve Bank noted that the composite indicators are continuously revised following revisions to underlying component time series. The next release is scheduled for 24 June 2025 at 09:00 A.M.