The Bank of Finland’s Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) published its 2025–2027 forecast for China, projecting a gradual slowdown in GDP growth as structural constraints, weak confidence and heightened trade uncertainty weigh on activity. BOFIT expects GDP growth to be around 3.5 percent in 2025 and 2026 before slowing to around 3 percent in 2027, while noting high uncertainty and arguing that official growth figures are likely to overstate underlying performance due to statistical deficiencies. The forecast highlights persistent problems in the real estate sector and subdued consumer confidence, and expects an escalation of the US–China trade war to further dampen growth. It also anticipates additional policy stimulus to support activity, but warns this would widen already large public sector imbalances, as export prospects weaken amid slower global demand growth and trading-partner concerns about dependence on China; BOFIT adds that meeting China’s “about 5%” growth target for 2025 would require more stimulus than has been announced.
Bank of Finland 2025-04-28
Bank of Finland’s BOFIT forecast projects China’s GDP growth easing to about 3 percent by 2027 as US trade war escalates
The Bank of Finland’s Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT) forecasts a gradual slowdown in China's GDP growth to 3.5% in 2025 and 2026, and 3% in 2027, citing structural constraints, weak confidence, and trade uncertainty. The report highlights issues in the real estate sector, subdued consumer confidence, and potential impacts from the US–China trade war. BOFIT anticipates additional policy stimulus but warns of widening public sector imbalances and challenges in meeting China's growth target for 2025.