The Central Bank of Russia has updated its banking sector outlook in its quarterly review, lowering the upper end of its 2026 forecasts for corporate claims, mortgage growth and consumer lending, while leaving the forecast for clients’ funds unchanged. It also raised its 2026 banking sector net profit forecast to RUB 3.4 trillion to RUB 3.9 trillion from RUB 3.3 trillion to RUB 3.8 trillion. In the first quarter of 2026, banks’ claims on companies rose 0.7%, reflecting weaker funding demand from firms that had received payments under government contracts amid high budget spending. The 2026 growth range was therefore revised to 7% to 11% from 7% to 12%. Outstanding mortgages grew 1.4% after demand had been pulled forward ahead of tighter Family Mortgage programme terms from 1 February 2026, and the annual forecast was narrowed to 6% to 10% from 6% to 11%. Consumer lending increased 0.3% over the quarter for the first time since late 2024, mainly because of credit cards, but the 2026 forecast was cut to 4% to 8% from 4% to 9% because monetary conditions are easing more slowly than expected. Clients’ funds were broadly flat and the 2026 forecast remained 5% to 10%. Banks earned RUB 1.2 trillion in net profit in the quarter, up from RUB 0.9 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2025, helped by lower operating expenses after seasonally high late-2025 costs and by smaller additional provisions for investments in non-core businesses. The review noted that profit growth in coming quarters could be constrained by rising loss provisions for highly leveraged companies with accumulated problems.
Central Bank of Russia2026-05-21
Central Bank of Russia trims 2026 credit growth forecasts and lifts bank profit outlook to RUB 3.4 trillion to RUB 3.9 trillion
The Central Bank of Russia updated its quarterly banking sector outlook, lowering the upper end of its 2026 forecasts for corporate claims, mortgage growth and consumer lending, while keeping the forecast for clients’ funds unchanged and raising the 2026 net profit forecast to RUB 3.4 trillion to RUB 3.9 trillion. In the first quarter of 2026, banks’ claims on companies rose 0.7%, mortgages 1.4% and consumer lending 0.3%, with clients’ funds flat. Banks reported RUB 1.2 trillion in net profit for the quarter, but the review warned that future profit growth may be constrained by higher loss provisions for highly leveraged companies.