The South African Reserve Bank published updated composite business cycle indicators showing a further 0.6% increase in the composite leading business cycle indicator in November 2024, alongside 0.6% increases in both the coincident and lagging indicators in October 2024. The leading indicator (2019=100) rose to 114.7 in November, with five of ten available components increasing, four decreasing and one unchanged. The largest positive contributions came from an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in new passenger vehicles sold and an improvement in the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index, while the largest drags were a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in real M1 and a fall in South Africa’s US dollar export commodity price index. The coincident indicator increased to 96.8 in October, driven by higher real wholesale, retail and motor trade sales, and the lagging indicator increased to 109.5. The next release is scheduled for 25 February 2025 at 09:00.
South African Reserve Bank 2025-01-28
South African Reserve Bank reports further increases in composite business cycle indicators with the leading index up 0.6% in November 2024
The South African Reserve Bank reported a 0.6% rise in the composite leading business cycle indicator to 114.7 in November 2024, with notable contributions from new passenger vehicle sales and the RMB/BER Business Confidence Index. The coincident and lagging indicators also increased by 0.6% in October 2024, reaching 96.8 and 109.5, respectively.