The Bank of France’s monthly business survey estimates that French GDP will grow by around 0.2% in the third quarter of 2026. Activity expanded moderately in manufacturing and market services in July and held up in construction, while businesses expected a broader pickup in August. The forecast remains subject to considerable uncertainty from Middle East developments and weather conditions. Industrial production rose less than expected in July but remained strong in technology, energy and defense-related sectors. Market services recorded slight growth, while construction resilience reflected stronger finishing works despite slower structural works. Raw material and selling price increases eased, suggesting that much of the pass-through from spring input cost increases may have occurred, and businesses did not expect the Middle East conflict to trigger a new widespread wave of price rises.
2026-08-18Bank of France
Bank of France forecasts 0.2% third-quarter GDP growth as price increases ease
The Bank of France estimates that GDP will grow by around 0.2% in the third quarter of 2026 after moderate activity growth in July. Businesses expect activity to pick up in August, while easing price increases suggest much of the pass-through from higher spring input costs has occurred. The forecast remains subject to geopolitical and weather-related uncertainty.