European Central Bank survey shows US tariff hikes have limited impact on job-loss expectations but raise concerns in export-exposed and low-income groups

The European Central Bank published research using its Consumer Expectations Survey to assess how euro area workers perceive the impact of recent US tariff announcements on their job security. It finds that most employed respondents do not see their job stability as affected, but workers in more export-oriented sectors and lower-income groups report higher perceived job-loss risk. In the July survey, 85% of workers reported unchanged or lower job-loss expectations after the tariff increase, while around 15% perceived a higher probability of job loss and 3% said it had increased a lot. Higher job-loss concerns were more common in countries and sectors with greater exposure to exports to the United States, with European Commission estimates putting the share of jobs directly linked to US exports at just above 1% in Greece and 6.7% in Ireland; by sector, industry, construction and trade showed higher increases in perceived risk, while public and health services showed little change. Financial services and ICT workers also reported higher concerns, particularly in Ireland and the Netherlands, and low-income workers were more likely to feel at risk, especially in goods-producing sectors. The post notes that the European Union and the United States agreed on a tariff ceiling of 15% on 27 July 2025 and that most survey fieldwork took place before that agreement, suggesting a repeat of the question would help assess whether perceptions have since shifted.