In a new article, European Central Bank researchers present evidence that countries with interlinked fast payment systems trade about 4% more with each other than comparable countries without such links. The estimate, based on annual data from 2021 to 2024 and methods designed to address countries’ pre-existing propensity to trade and connect their systems, is roughly half the estimated trade effect of a formal trade agreement. The gains are largest for smaller economies, countries in regions with high cross-border transaction fees, and links that support wholesale as well as retail payments. The findings support prioritizing connections that reach underserved markets and process large-value trade transactions, alongside greater technical standardization through common messaging and interoperability standards such as ISO 20022.
2026-09-24European Central Bank
European Central Bank research finds fast payment links increase bilateral trade by about 4%
European Central Bank research finds that interlinking countries’ fast payment systems is associated with about 4% more bilateral trade. Gains are greatest for smaller and underserved economies, high-cost payment corridors, and systems that support wholesale transactions.