The Bank of Guatemala Monetary Board unanimously kept its monetary policy rate at 3.50%, judging that upside inflation risks remain contained. Headline inflation rose to 3.37% in August from 2.70% in July, remaining below the 4% midpoint of the target range of plus or minus 1 percentage point. The increase primarily reflected higher international fuel prices, alongside emerging price pressures in some food categories. Inflation forecasts and expectations remain within the target range for 2026 and 2027, although persistently high fuel prices and potential effects from El Niño pose upside risks. Domestic activity indicators remain consistent with projected 2026 gross domestic product growth of 3.3% to 5.3%, but a prolonged global oil supply shock could raise local fuel prices and weaken the economic outlook.
2026-09-23Bank of Guatemala
Bank of Guatemala Monetary Board holds policy rate at 3.50%
The Bank of Guatemala Monetary Board unanimously held its policy rate at 3.50% as it assessed inflation risks as contained. Inflation rose to 3.37% in August, driven mainly by fuel prices, while forecasts remain within target for 2026 and 2027.