The European Central Bank published the February 2026 results of its Consumer Expectations Survey, noting that 97% of responses were collected before the onset of the war in the Middle East on 28 February. Consumers’ short- and medium-term inflation expectations edged down, while expectations for spending growth increased and the outlook for growth and unemployment became less negative; housing price expectations softened and mortgage-rate expectations were unchanged. Median perceived inflation over the previous 12 months held at 3.0%, while median inflation expectations for the next 12 months and three years ahead both fell to 2.5% from 2.6%, and five-year-ahead expectations stayed at 2.3%. Nominal income growth expectations over the next 12 months remained at 1.2%; perceived spending growth over the past 12 months declined to 4.6% from 4.9% and expected spending growth rose to 3.5% from 3.4%. Expected economic growth over the next 12 months improved to -0.9% from -1.1%, and the expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead decreased to 10.8% from 11.0%, versus a perceived current rate of 10.4%. Expected home price growth over the next 12 months eased to 3.6% from 3.7%, mortgage rate expectations stayed at 4.7%, and net reported tightening of credit access and expected tightening over the next year both declined. The ECB scheduled the release of the March survey results for 28 April 2026.
European Central Bank 2026-03-27
European Central Bank publishes February consumer survey showing inflation expectations easing to 2.5%
The European Central Bank released February 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey results, noting most responses were collected before the Middle East conflict began. Inflation expectations for the short and medium term decreased slightly, while spending growth expectations rose and economic growth and unemployment outlooks improved. Housing price expectations softened, and mortgage rate expectations remained unchanged.