The Central Bank of Nigeria published its January 2025 Economic Report, setting out developments across Nigeria’s real, fiscal, monetary and external sectors alongside global conditions. Key domestic takeaways were a rebased headline inflation rate of 24.48%, an expansion in the Federal Government of Nigeria’s fiscal deficit driven by weaker revenues, a contraction in broad money supply (M3) and banking-system credit, and improved external-sector indicators including a stronger trade surplus and a modest appreciation of the naira in the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM). Business activity remained in expansion but slowed, with the composite purchasing managers’ index at 50.20, while services contracted to 48.60; domestic crude oil production rose 4.05% month on month to 1.54 mbpd (excluding condensates), exceeding Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.50 mbpd by 38,697 bpd. Provisional fiscal data showed federally collected revenue fell 31.35% month on month to NGN 1.94 trillion and FGN retained revenue was NGN 0.48 trillion, while aggregate expenditure was NGN 1.62 trillion, resulting in an overall deficit of NGN 1.13 trillion. On monetary conditions, reserve money edged down to NGN 32.66 trillion and M3 contracted 1.90% to NGN 110.94 trillion; total ODC credit declined 1.05% to NGN 58.60 trillion and consumer credit fell 12.70% to NGN 4.12 trillion. In the external sector, the trade surplus widened to USD 2.20 billion as exports rose to USD 5.37 billion, capital inflows increased to USD 2.06 billion (USD 1.85 billion portfolio), and the average NFEM rate appreciated 1.16% to NGN 1,535.94/USD; external reserves declined to USD 38.88 billion (8.82 months import cover for goods and services). The report projects continued positive growth in 2025, linked to ongoing reforms in the oil sector and foreign exchange market, and expects inflation pressures to moderate in the near term, while flagging risks including heightened insecurity, exchange rate depreciation, rising cost of living and higher input costs.
Central Bank of Nigeria 2025-04-17
Central Bank of Nigeria publishes January 2025 Economic Report with rebased inflation at 24.48% and naira appreciation at the NFEM
The Central Bank of Nigeria's January 2025 Economic Report highlights a rebased inflation rate of 24.48%, fiscal deficit expansion due to weaker revenues, and a contraction in broad money supply and banking credit. It notes improved external indicators, including a stronger trade surplus and naira appreciation, alongside a rise in crude oil production exceeding OPEC quotas. It projects continued growth in 2025, with moderated inflation pressures, but warns of risks such as insecurity, exchange rate depreciation, and rising costs.