The Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank of Kazakhstan cut the base rate by 100 bp to 17.00 % with a ±1 pp corridor, arguing that persistent disinflation, a stronger tenge and a lower balance of pro-inflationary risks now allow some easing while still preserving moderately tight conditions needed to push inflation into single digits. After a 100 bp hike to 18 % in October 2025 the rate had been kept unchanged through April 2026. Annual inflation slowed to 10.4 % in May from the September 2025 peak of 12.9 %; food inflation eased to 10.7 %, services to 8.7 %, while non-food inflation held at 11.7 %, and monthly inflation slipped to 0.7 %. Inflation expectations of households stabilised around 12.7 %, and professional forecasters continue to see end-2026 inflation at 10 %. The Bank now projects 2026 inflation at 9–11 % (previously 9.5–11.5 %) and GDP growth at 4.5–5.5 %, supported by stronger economic activity and higher Brent oil assumptions of USD 90/bbl this year. A firmer exchange rate and cooler consumer credit growth are helping contain demand pressures, though domestic risks remain from quasi-fiscal stimulus, tariff and fuel-price reforms, and expanding money aggregates; externally, geopolitical tensions could lift global inflation volatility. Leading central banks retain a cautious stance as energy costs keep price pressures elevated. The Committee expects inflation to reach single digits this year and reiterated that future rate decisions will hinge on realis
National Bank of Kazakhstan2026-06-05
National Bank of Kazakhstan cuts base rate by 100 bp to 17.00 %
The National Bank of Kazakhstan cut the base rate by 100 bp to 17 % (±1 pp corridor), saying persistent disinflation, a stronger tenge and reduced pro-inflation risks permit limited easing while keeping policy moderately tight to drive inflation below 10 %. The committee now sees 2026 inflation at 9–11 % (previously 9.5–11.5 %) and will calibrate further moves to actual price dynamics, domestic demand and fiscal and quasi-fiscal impulses.