The Bank of Canada published the first-quarter 2026 Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations, based mainly on responses collected February 5–25, 2026 with follow-up interviews February 24–March 2, 2026, and supplemented by a special survey March 26–April 2, 2026 on how the war in the Middle East is affecting views and behaviours. Before the war began, consumers reported muted spending plans, a still-soft labour market and near-term inflation expectations that were largely unchanged and remained above the survey’s historical average, while longer-term inflation expectations edged down from 12 months earlier. The CSCE indicator rose slightly from recent lows as US trade actions weighed less on sentiment, although it remained below its level from just over 12 months earlier. Improvements in spending plans were concentrated among workers in trade-sensitive sectors, but high prices for goods and services and economic uncertainty continued to dampen spending intentions, alongside a continued shift toward Canadian-made goods and domestic vacations. Labour market perceptions remained weak, with job-loss fears still elevated and increasing among public sector workers and among workers in sectors where more than one-fifth of employees are in jobs with tasks more replaceable by artificial intelligence. The special survey of about 600 households found most expect the war to weaken the Canadian economy and raise inflation, particularly via gasoline and food prices, and it recorded reported behaviour changes including cancelled or postponed trips (21%) and delayed or reduced major spending (28%).

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