The South African Reserve Bank published its composite business cycle indicators for South Africa, showing the composite leading business cycle indicator fell by 1.0% in December 2025. The composite coincident indicator declined by 0.2% in November 2025 and the composite lagging indicator decreased by 0.1% in November 2025. The December fall in the leading indicator reflected declines in five of the seven available component time series, partly offset by increases in South Africa’s US dollar-denominated export commodity price index and an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in new passenger vehicle sales. The largest negative contributions came from a deceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in real M1 money supply and a decrease in the number of residential building plans approved; other negative contributors included the interest rate spread between 10-year government bonds and 91-day Treasury bills, the leading indicator for major trading-partner countries, and job advertisements. The coincident indicator decline was attributed to decreases in the industrial production index and manufacturing capacity utilisation. The next release is scheduled for 24 March 2026 at 09:00.
South African Reserve Bank 2026-02-24
South African Reserve Bank reports 1.0% fall in December 2025 composite leading business cycle indicator
The South African Reserve Bank reported a 1.0% decline in the composite leading business cycle indicator for December 2025, driven by decreases in real M1 money supply growth and residential building plan approvals. The composite coincident indicator fell by 0.2% in November 2025, mainly due to reduced industrial production and manufacturing capacity utilisation.