Uruguay's Ministry of Economy and Finance published a summary of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff’s concluding statement for the 2025 Article IV consultation, which assesses Uruguay’s economy as resilient amid heightened global uncertainty and maintains a broadly positive outlook. The IMF highlighted the rebound in agricultural output in 2024 after the 2023 drought, which helped narrow the current account deficit to -1% of GDP. It also pointed to inflation remaining within the Central Bank of Uruguay’s target range for more than two years and to abundant international reserves, equivalent to 11.5 months of imports at end-August 2025. Market access was described as favorable, supported by investment-grade credit ratings and sovereign spreads at historical lows and the lowest in the region. Staff projections put growth at 2.5% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, driven by a recovery in real wages after the pandemic and lower domestic uncertainty. The IMF also backed proposed reforms to the fiscal institutional framework, citing binding fiscal-rule targets anchored to a prudent net debt-to-GDP level, corrective mechanisms for deviations, and greater autonomy and an expanded mandate for the Fiscal Council, while noting that effective implementation and meeting targets would be important for the expected reputational benefits. The statement noted that the social dialogue on protection and social security is expected to conclude with proposals in April 2026, and that any reform should be consistent with the objective of ensuring the sustainability of social spending.

Original source View in tracker