The International Monetary Fund published a working paper examining how China accelerated exports to the United States ahead of new tariff increases during the 2024–25 episode of US–China trade tensions. Using a factor-model framework that decomposes product-level exports into latent “export baskets” based on data from China’s General Administration of Customs, the authors find broad-based adjustments across production, intermediate-input flows and export destinations that were not observed in 2018. Shipments to the United States accelerated in the second half of 2024, potentially supported by the retention of intermediate inputs that facilitated a ramp-up in domestic production. From January 2025, domestic production slowed while shipments of intermediate inputs to Vietnam and other Association of Southeast Asian Nations economies increased, consistent with relocation of export-oriented manufacturing following US tariffs. Exporters then prioritised shipments to the United States through March 2025 by reallocating flows away from third destinations with similar export profiles; when exports to the United States fell sharply in April–May amid reciprocal tariff escalation, the decline was partly offset by increased shipments to third destinations, consistent with fulfilment of previously deferred orders. As an IMF working paper, the analysis is presented as research in progress to elicit comments and does not represent the views of the IMF or its Executive Board.

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