The International Monetary Fund has published the staff concluding statement for its 2026 Article IV mission to Luxembourg, describing a tepid and uneven recovery, a softening labor market, a worsening fiscal balance and rising inflation pressures. Staff projects moderate growth of 1.2 percent in 2026, down from 1.6 percent forecast before the war in the Middle East, with downside risks prevailing. While the financial system is assessed as resilient, the statement says Luxembourg needs a moderate fiscal adjustment focused on containing current expenditure to stabilize public debt over the medium term and should keep close watch on liquidity, leverage and funding risks across its highly interconnected financial system. Staff said the general government balance moved from a surplus of around 1 percent of GDP in 2024 to a deficit of 2 percent of GDP in 2025 as expenditure rose 8.8 percent year on year and revenue growth slowed to 2.5 percent. The deficit is projected to remain around 2 percent of GDP in 2026. Recommendations include avoiding untargeted energy support, containing the public wage bill, improving the targeting of social benefits, broadening the tax base through measures including property and environmental taxation, and reforming the national fiscal rule around a debt anchor and an operational rule. On financial policy, staff pointed to elevated household and corporate leverage, called for continued conservative provisioning and stronger forward-looking bank risk management, and said Luxembourg should consider higher releasable capital buffers, early introduction of direct income-based mortgage measures, and a gradual reduction of the high loan-to-value limit. Structural priorities highlighted were skills and labor market reforms, faster housing supply measures and deeper European Single Market integration. The statement is preliminary and reflects IMF staff views rather than those of the Executive Board. Staff will now prepare a report for management approval and subsequent Executive Board discussion and decision.
International Monetary Fund 2026-05-06
International Monetary Fund staff calls for moderate fiscal adjustment in Luxembourg and continued vigilance on financial system risks
The International Monetary Fund’s staff concluding statement for its 2026 Article IV mission to Luxembourg highlights a tepid, uneven recovery, a softening labour market, a shift from a 1 percent of GDP surplus in 2024 to a 2 percent deficit in 2025, and projected growth of 1.2 percent in 2026 amid rising inflation and downside risks. While assessing the financial system as resilient, staff calls for fiscal adjustment focused on containing current expenditure, better-targeted social and energy support, tax base broadening, reform of the fiscal rule, and stronger macroprudential measures, including higher releasable capital buffers and tighter mortgage standards.