Central Bank of Colombia publishes study projecting Colombia’s student population to fall to 6.3 million by 2050

The Central Bank of Colombia has published an Economics Working Paper assessing the fiscal impact of Colombia’s demographic shift on the financing of public education, with a focus on how declining enrolment could alter spending needs and create room to reallocate resources toward coverage and quality. The paper notes a sharp decline in fertility, with the total fertility rate reaching 1.1 children per woman in 2024, and links this to sustained falls in enrolment across education levels despite an increase in students of Venezuelan origin. Using enrolment projections by level, sector (official and non-official) and area (urban and rural) to 2050 under different population growth scenarios, it analyses implications for education funding under three alternative growth paths for the Sistema General de Participaciones, including effects on per-student spending and aggregate expenditure relative to GDP. Results project the school-age student population to decline to about 6.3 million by 2050, down 3.1 million versus 2024, and to 7.4 million even under a 100% coverage scenario; it argues that any savings from lower enrolment could be redirected to expand pre-school and upper-secondary coverage and improve quality, but would require institutional changes to adjust teacher staffing gradually, strengthen territorial equity in resource allocation, and avoid additional pressure on central government finances. The publication is part of the central bank’s Borradores de Economía working paper series and is described as provisional, with views and any errors attributed to the authors rather than the central bank or its Board.