The National Bank of Belgium’s latest Business Cycle Monitor forecasts that Belgian GDP will grow by 0.3% in the third quarter of 2026, rebounding from stagnation in the second quarter. Its nowcasting models indicate growth of 0.3% to 0.6%, but the bank favors the lower estimate based on recent forecasting performance and assesses the balance of risks as broadly neutral. Household consumption growth is expected to remain stable despite weak purchasing power growth, while business and government investment should return to moderately positive growth. Housing investment is forecast to edge up, general government consumption to remain broadly flat and net exports to make a broadly neutral contribution as exports and imports rise at similar rates. Downside risk centers on weaker household spending, while a stronger recovery in business investment or continued export outperformance could lift growth.
2026-09-09National Bank of Belgium
National Bank of Belgium forecasts 0.3% economic rebound in third quarter of 2026
The National Bank of Belgium forecasts Belgian GDP growth of 0.3% in the third quarter of 2026, following stagnation in the second quarter. Stable household consumption and recovering investment should support activity, while net exports are expected to contribute little and risks remain broadly neutral.