The National Bank of Moldova published an update on its Residential Property Price Index (RPPI), showing a sharp acceleration in residential property prices by end-Q1 2025 across both the primary and secondary markets. The aggregate RPPI reached 211.7 (2019 average = 100), up 18.4% from Q4 2024 and 35.4% from Q1 2024, with the increase attributed largely to expanded access to credit through the government’s “Prima Casă Plus” programme. On the primary market, the RPPI based on offer prices rose to 220.9, up 20.6% quarter on quarter and 32.9% year on year, while the secondary market RPPI reached 204.9, up 17.4% quarter on quarter and 36.3% year on year. Despite higher prices, transaction activity showed signs of cooling, including a 32.9% fall in residential sales transactions in Chișinău versus the prior quarter, alongside a decline in the number of properties purchased via mortgage. Over the same period, the share of transactions financed by mortgages increased from 32.1% at end-Q4 2024 to 41.0% at end-Q1 2025, and mortgages under “Prima Casă Plus” rose from 310 in Q3 2024 to 922 in Q1 2025, lifting the programme’s share of quarterly mortgage contracts from 11.0% to 34.9%. The analysis also notes that the programme’s MDL 2.5 million financing amount could become a reference point for entry-level pricing, alongside an increase in the median offer price in Chișinău from about EUR 89,000 to EUR 104,500. The central bank’s analysis anticipates further price increases until the Chișinău median converges towards the EUR equivalent of MDL 2.5 million (about EUR 127,800), after which transaction volumes could stagnate and activity may shift beyond Chișinău, potentially requiring recalibration of the RPPI. The update reiterates that the National Bank of Moldova continues ongoing banking supervision and has macroprudential tools including capital buffers and sectoral and borrower-based limits.
National Bank of Moldova 2025-05-26
National Bank of Moldova reports RPPI at 211.7 with an 18.4% quarterly rise linked to expanded Prima Casă Plus mortgage financing
The National Bank of Moldova reported a sharp rise in residential property prices by the end of Q1 2025, with the Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) reaching 211.7, driven by expanded credit access through the "Prima Casă Plus" programme. Despite higher prices, transaction activity cooled, with a decline in sales in Chișinău and a rise in mortgage-financed transactions. The central bank anticipates further price increases until the Chișinău median reaches approximately EUR 127,800, potentially leading to stagnation in transaction volumes and a shift in activity beyond Chișinău.