The Czech National Bank published its May survey of financial market inflation expectations, based on 14 domestic and three foreign analysts. The results show a weaker outlook for Czech growth in 2026, with the average GDP forecast cut to 2.0% from 2.2% in the previous survey, while the 2027 forecast stayed at 2.3%. Analysts left the one-year consumer price inflation forecast unchanged at 2.7% but raised the three-year forecast to 2.2%, citing the conflict between the United States and Iran, higher oil and fuel prices and the risk of a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz as the main sources of uncertainty. All respondents again expect the two-week repo rate to remain at 3.5% at the June Bank Board meeting, although the average one-year policy rate forecast rose to 3.57% and more analysts now expect a 25 basis point increase over that horizon. Exchange rate expectations were broadly unchanged, with EUR/CZK seen at 24.37 in one month and 24.27 in one year, while the forecast for nominal wage growth in 2026 was revised up slightly to 6.1% and the 2027 wage outlook remained at 5.2%.
Czech National Bank2026-05-25
Czech National Bank publishes May expectations survey with 2026 GDP forecast cut to 2.0% and three-year inflation seen at 2.2%
The Czech National Bank published its May survey of financial market inflation expectations, showing a weaker outlook for 2026 GDP growth, unchanged 2027 growth, and slightly higher three-year inflation expectations driven by geopolitical and commodity price risks. Analysts still expect the two-week repo rate to remain at 3.5% in June, but the average one-year policy rate forecast increased to 3.57%, while exchange rate expectations were stable and nominal wage growth forecasts for 2026 were revised up.