The International Monetary Fund has published a Chart of the Week, drawing on its April 2026 World Economic Outlook, arguing that maritime and air transport disruptions caused by the war in the Middle East are creating lasting economic damage rather than a temporary shock. The Fund says interrupted energy and goods corridors are slowing trade, raising supply chain costs, hurting tourism-dependent and import-reliant economies, and pushing up prices for food and other essentials, with lower-income households bearing the heaviest burden. Its chart highlights that attacks on Red Sea shipping that began in 2023 forced many vessels to reroute around Africa instead of using the Suez Canal, and that transits through the Bab el-Mandeb strait remain about half their pre-attack level more than two years later. The Fund says the outlook for traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and for regional air travel is still uncertain, and warns that if recovery is similarly slow, the drag on growth could continue well after hostilities end. It adds that strengthening the resilience of transport networks is now central to sustaining growth and protecting livelihoods.
International Monetary Fund 2026-04-29
International Monetary Fund warns Middle East shipping and flight disruptions could slow growth long after fighting ends
The International Monetary Fund, drawing on its April 2026 World Economic Outlook, warns that maritime and air transport disruptions from the Middle East war are causing lasting economic damage, especially to tourism-dependent and import-reliant economies and lower-income households. Red Sea shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb strait remains about half its pre-attack level more than two years after rerouting began, and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz and regional air travel could prolong the drag on growth. The Fund says strengthening transport-network resilience is now central to sustaining growth and protecting livelihoods.