The Ministry of Finance published an update on Latvia's retail trade, citing the latest Central Statistical Bureau data showing retail trade volumes rose 4.6% year on year in the first quarter of 2026 and 3.9% in March. Growth was driven by fuel and non-food sales, while food sales remained weak. In the ministry's assessment, demand has so far held up despite a cold start to the year and a sharp increase in fuel prices in the second half of March. In the first quarter, fuel retail volumes increased 7.8% and non-food retail excluding fuel rose 6.7%, while food retail fell 0.2%. In March, non-food volumes were up 5.4%, fuel 4.8% and food 1.1% from a year earlier, although food sales volumes were still described as low. Among non-food categories, the strongest gains were in information and communication goods, household goods, and cultural and recreation goods, while sales at stalls and markets fell 6.4%. Brent crude rose above EUR 100 per barrel in the second half of March, and fuel in Latvia was 18.5% more expensive than a year earlier, including a 24.1% increase in diesel prices. The European Commission's April sentiment index also worsened, with retailer sentiment at its lowest since July 2025 and consumer sentiment at its lowest since January 2025. The ministry said a longer period of price increases could reduce purchasing power and weigh on retail volumes and services consumption. With Brent at EUR 114 per barrel on 29 April and developments in the Strait of Hormuz described as unpredictable, it said the outlook for retail trade and other sectors is difficult to forecast. If the Middle East conflict does not persist, retail trade volume growth in 2026 could reach 3% to 4%.

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