The Central Bank of Nicaragua published its Macroeconomic Outlook for 2025–2026, reporting that economic performance has exceeded initial growth expectations despite continued international uncertainty linked to tariff policy adjustments and geopolitical conflicts. Based on results through the third quarter of 2025, it revised its macroeconomic scenario relative to its October 2025 outlook. For 2025, the GDP growth projection range was raised to 4.5–5.0% (from 3.0–4.0%), while the average unemployment rate was kept at 3.0–3.5% and the inflation projection range was adjusted to 2.5–3.0% (from 2.0–3.0%). The current account surplus forecast was revised up to 7.0–8.0% of GDP (from 5.5–6.5%), reflecting favourable external trade and other external flows. For 2026, the Bank set GDP growth at 3.5–4.5%, unemployment at 3.0–3.5%, and inflation at 2.5–3.5%, citing easing international inflation, an adequate monetary and fiscal policy stance and support from exchange rate policy, while flagging downside risks from worsening trade shocks and climate-related events.
Central Bank of Nicaragua 2026-01-12
Central Bank of Nicaragua raises its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 4.5–5.0% in its 2025–2026 macroeconomic outlook
The Central Bank of Nicaragua's Macroeconomic Outlook for 2025–2026 reports stronger-than-expected economic growth, revising the 2025 GDP growth projection to 4.5–5.0% and adjusting inflation to 2.5–3.0%, with a current account surplus forecast of 7.0–8.0% of GDP. For 2026, GDP growth is set at 3.5–4.5%, with inflation at 2.5–3.5%, supported by easing international inflation and favorable monetary and fiscal policies, though risks from trade shocks and climate remain.