The International Monetary Fund published a working paper assessing whether financial markets, in aggregate, expect stablecoins to become an important payments instrument. Using high-frequency stock price variation, the authors estimate that US legislation supporting the use of stablecoins in payments reduced the market value of listed incumbent payment firms by 18%, or around USD 300 billion, consistent with expectations of increased competition in payments. The estimated valuation impact is described as larger than that of other recent pro-competitive regulatory shocks and is proportionately larger for incumbents focused on cross-border payments. The effect is smaller for incumbents viewed as protected by network effects and for firms already offering crypto-related services; the paper is published as research in progress to elicit comments and does not necessarily represent the views of the IMF.
International Monetary Fund 2026-03-20
International Monetary Fund working paper estimates stablecoin-friendly US legislation erased about USD 300 billion from incumbent payment firms’ market value
The International Monetary Fund released a working paper analyzing market expectations for stablecoins as a significant payments instrument. The study found that U.S. legislation supporting stablecoins reduced the market value of incumbent payment firms by 18%, or about USD 300 billion, indicating anticipated competition. The impact was more pronounced for firms focused on cross-border payments and less so for those with network effects or existing crypto services.