Federal Reserve Bank of New York reports higher one year inflation expectations and weaker credit access in April consumer survey

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York published the April 2026 Survey of Consumer Expectations, showing that households increased their one-year-ahead inflation expectations while leaving medium- and longer-term expectations unchanged. The survey also showed a sharp retreat in expected gas price growth, largely stable labor market expectations, weaker views on current and future credit access, and lower expected debt-payment delinquency. Median inflation expectations rose by 0.2 percentage point to 3.6% at the one-year horizon, while remaining at 3.1% for three years ahead and 3.0% for five years ahead. Median expected home price growth fell to 3.0%, and year-ahead gas price growth expectations dropped by 4.3 percentage points to 5.1%, alongside smaller declines for expected food, medical care, college and rent price growth. In the labor market data, expected earnings growth edged up to 2.7%, the mean probability that unemployment will be higher in a year increased to 43.9%, the highest since April 2025, and the perceived probability of finding a job after job loss rose to 46.0%. In household finance, expected income growth eased to 2.8%, expected spending growth increased to 5.4%, perceptions of credit access deteriorated, and the average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months fell to 11.4%, its lowest level in more than two years. The survey was fielded from April 1 to April 30, 2026.