The National Bank of Denmark published a working paper finding that firms that adopted artificial intelligence in 2023 recorded employment growth 6% below their pre-adoption trend after two years and 11% below trend relative to non-adopters by late 2025. The results describe differences between self-selected adopters and non-adopters and do not establish that AI adoption caused the employment changes. The shortfall was entirely concentrated among adopters with fewer than 100 full-time employees and reflected lower recruitment rather than layoffs. Employment in AI-exposed occupations was about 25% below trend, compared with 7% elsewhere, while wages did not respond. Large adopters maintained overall headcount on trend but shifted employment toward less AI-exposed occupations. Economy-wide employment remained relatively unaffected because the shrinking adopters employed too few workers to materially change the aggregate. An industry-level decomposition attributed about one-quarter of the relationship between AI exposure and weaker employment to adoption, with the remainder largely reflecting differences in industry composition.
2026-09-16National Bank of Denmark
National Bank of Denmark working paper finds AI adopters' employment growth 11% lower by late 2025
A National Bank of Denmark working paper finds that 2023 AI adopters recorded employment growth 11% below trend relative to non-adopters by late 2025. The shortfall was concentrated in firms with fewer than 100 employees and resulted from lower hiring, particularly in AI-exposed occupations. Economy-wide employment and wages remained relatively unaffected.