The Spanish Securities Commission (CNMV) published its Financial Stability Note with first-half data and an assessment of key risks, reporting that its Spanish market stress indicator has moved into a medium-risk zone amid US tariff-related uncertainty and the Israel–Iran conflict. The latest available reading is 0.29, after the indicator started the year in low-risk territory. Two temporary spikes took the indicator to 0.44 in April and 0.35 in June, alongside higher volatility and price-decline measures and an increase in system-wide correlation to elevated levels. The note highlights very high geopolitical risks, operational risks including the 28 April power outage, and risks linked to new technologies; from a financial stability perspective it emphasises market and contagion risks, non-bank financial intermediation, and medium-to-long-term risks such as cybersecurity, cryptoassets and sustainability. Market developments cited include a 20.7% rise in the Ibex 35 in the first half, strong activity in admissions to trading on multilateral trading facilities including BME ScaleUp, Portfolio Stock Exchange and BME Growth, a degree of normalisation of the yield curve, and a recovery in domestic fixed-income issuance; retail investors’ share of Ibex 35 equity trading rose to 10.5% of purchases and 15.2% of sales. On risk assessment, the note points to market risk in certain equity assets and sectors, especially in US markets, and a growing importance of contagion risk, while its review of liquidity mismatches and leverage in non-bank financial intermediation does not indicate material vulnerabilities. It also observes increased correlation between major cryptoassets and traditional financial instruments, particularly equities, which alongside greater interconnectedness and high market capitalisation increases the potential for cryptoassets to affect financial stability.
Spanish Securities Commission (CNMV) 2025-07-22
Spanish Securities Commission financial stability note keeps market stress in a medium risk zone and flags higher retail Ibex 35 trading
The Spanish Securities Commission (CNMV) reported its market stress indicator is in a medium-risk zone due to US tariff uncertainty and the Israel–Iran conflict, with a reading of 0.29. The Financial Stability Note highlights high geopolitical, operational, market, and contagion risks, along with medium-to-long-term risks like cybersecurity and cryptoassets. It also notes increased correlation between major cryptoassets and traditional financial instruments, raising potential financial stability concerns.