The Federal Reserve Board published research compiling Federal Reserve and United States Secret Service data to estimate the volume of counterfeit U.S. banknotes in circulation and to describe counterfeit passing activity by denomination, location, and counterfeit type. The paper estimates the total stock of counterfeits in the United States at no more than about USD 30 million (around 1 in 40,000 notes) and likely about USD 15 million (around 1 in 80,000 genuine notes), in both piece and value terms. This is lower than the estimate of 1 in 10,000 notes reported in Treasury (2006) using similar methods and sources, with the decline attributed in part to increased circulation of higher-security banknotes and greater public education on banknote security features. For counterfeits of reasonable quality, losses to the U.S. public from high-quality counterfeits of the most commonly used notes (USD 20 and smaller denominations) are described as minimal, although estimates vary by denomination.
Federal Reserve Board 2025-02-01
Federal Reserve Board research estimates counterfeit U.S. currency in circulation at USD 15–30 million
The Federal Reserve Board released research estimating the volume of counterfeit U.S. banknotes in circulation, using data from the Federal Reserve and the United States Secret Service. The study estimates counterfeits at no more than USD 30 million, significantly lower than previous estimates, due to enhanced banknote security and public education. Losses from high-quality counterfeits of commonly used notes are minimal.