The Czech National Bank published its April Financial Market Inflation Expectations survey, which showed the average one-year consumer price inflation forecast rising to 2.7% from 2.4% in March, while the average three-year forecast held at 2.1%, close to the CNB’s 2% target. Analysts also revised down the Czech GDP growth outlook to 2.2% for 2026 and 2.3% for 2027 and continued to expect the CNB’s key rates to remain broadly at current levels over the next year. The survey covered 16 domestic and three foreign analysts. Some respondents raised their near-term inflation forecasts on the assumption of a longer-lasting conflict in the Middle East, widening the one-year CPI forecast range to 1.8% to 5.0%, while medium-term expectations remained anchored. All respondents expected no change in the CNB’s key rates at the upcoming Bank Board meeting, and the average one-year forecasts were 3.52% for the two-week repo rate and 3.68% for 12-month PRIBOR. Average EUR/CZK forecasts were CZK 24.40 in one month and CZK 24.28 in one year, while expected nominal wage growth was left unchanged at 6.0% for 2026 and trimmed to 5.2% for 2027.
Czech National Bank 2026-04-28
Czech National Bank April survey shows one year inflation expectations rising to 2.7% while three year expectations stay at 2.1%
The Czech National Bank’s April Financial Market Inflation Expectations survey shows the average one-year consumer price inflation forecast rising to 2.7% while the three-year forecast remains at 2.1%, close to the 2% target, with medium-term expectations anchored. Analysts revised down Czech GDP growth to 2.2% for 2026 and 2.3% for 2027, expect key policy rates to stay broadly unchanged over the next year, and project the two-week repo rate at 3.52% and 12-month PRIBOR at 3.68% in one year.