The International Monetary Fund has published a departmental paper assessing the macroeconomic effects of artificial intelligence across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan and the Caucasus and Central Asia. Scenario-based simulations suggest AI adoption and related investment could raise annual real GDP growth by 0.1 to 0.6 percentage points, with gains in Gulf Cooperation Council economies about 1.5 times those in the Caucasus and Central Asia and roughly twice those in low-income regional economies. The gap reflects differences in exposure to AI, preparedness and access to advanced technologies. Gulf economies could capture further gains from their investment drive, including roughly USD 120 billion of plans announced by Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in 2025. Returns depend on sustained infrastructure investment, stronger exports of AI services, regulatory arrangements with advanced economies and broader adoption abroad. The paper also identifies financial stability risks from leveraged investment and underused infrastructure, while 30% to 50% of regional employment is exposed to AI-related disruption. It calls for AI-specific macrofinancial scenarios, stronger prudential oversight, improved digital infrastructure and skills, and targeted social protection and labor market policies.
International Monetary Fund estimates AI could add 0.1 to 0.6 percentage points to annual growth in the Middle East and Central Asia
The International Monetary Fund estimates AI adoption and investment could add 0.1 to 0.6 percentage points to annual real GDP growth across the Middle East and Central Asia, with the largest gains in Gulf economies. Returns will depend on preparedness, technology access and demand for AI services. Leveraged investment and labor market disruption create financial and social risks requiring stronger oversight, skills policies and worker support.