The South African Reserve Bank published its latest composite business cycle indicators, showing that the composite leading indicator fell by 1.8% in April 2026 to 118.9. The decline was driven mainly by slower six-month smoothed growth in the real M1 money supply and fewer approved residential building plans. The composite coincident indicator was unchanged at 94.5 in March 2026, while the composite lagging indicator rose by 0.9% to 104.8 in March 2026. The leading indicator weakened broadly, with eight of the 10 available component series declining. Negative contributors included business confidence, job advertisements, new passenger vehicle sales, the interest rate spread, export commodity prices and average factory hours worked. These declines outweighed positive contributions from the volume of domestic manufacturing orders and the leading indicator for South Africa's major trading-partner countries. In the coincident indicator, higher real wholesale, retail and motor trade sales were offset by lower industrial production. The next release is scheduled for 28 July 2026.
South African Reserve Bank2026-06-23
South African Reserve Bank reports 1.8% drop in leading business cycle indicator in April
The South African Reserve Bank said South Africa's composite leading business cycle indicator fell 1.8% in April 2026, mainly because of slower real M1 growth and fewer approved residential building plans. The coincident indicator was unchanged in March, while the lagging indicator rose 0.9%. Eight of the 10 available leading components declined.