The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas lowered its forecast for Texas employment growth in 2026 to 1.2 percent, with an 80 percent confidence band of 0.8 percent to 1.6 percent. The forecast implies the addition of 173,600 jobs and total employment of 14.5 million by December 2026. First-quarter benchmark revisions accounted for most of the downgrade from the previous forecast. Texas employment grew at an annualized rate of 1.6 percent in August after declining 0.1 percent in July. Year-to-date job growth reached 1 percent, below the state’s 2 percent long-run average and at a pace the Dallas Fed described as more consistent with labor supply constraints. The statewide unemployment rate fell to 4.4 percent in August, with declines across several major metropolitan areas.
2026-09-21Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas lowers 2026 Texas employment growth forecast to 1.2 percent
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas lowered its 2026 Texas employment growth forecast to 1.2 percent, largely because of first-quarter benchmark revisions. The forecast implies 173,600 additional jobs and employment of 14.5 million by December, while the statewide unemployment rate fell to 4.4 percent in August.