Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) cut the Selic policy rate by 25 bp to 14.75 % p.a., launching what it calls a “monetary policy calibration cycle” to sustain the ongoing moderation in economic activity and gradual easing of headline and core inflation, which nonetheless remain above target and alongside de-anchored expectations for 2026-27 (Focus at 4.1 % and 3.8 %; Copom projection for Q3-2027 at 3.3 %). This follows a cumulative 75 bp increase to 15.00 % between March and June 2025 and an extended pause through January 2026. The committee notes labour-market resilience but observes a recent “softening” in activity and elevated uncertainty over the inflation path, exacerbated by the escalation of Middle East conflicts that have tightened global financial conditions and heightened asset-price and commodity-price volatility. While reaffirming vigilance over domestic fiscal developments and the risk that a persistently weaker BRL could lift prices, Copom also flags downside risks from a sharper global or local slowdown and lower commodity prices. It stresses that future rate adjustments will be data-dependent, with the pace of easing conditioned on fresh information about the duration and economic impact of the regional conflict to ensure convergence of inflation to target while smoothing economic fluctuations.
Central Bank of Brazil 2026-03-18
Brazil’s Copom cuts Selic rate 25 bp to 14.75 %
Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee cut the Selic rate by 25 bp to 14.75 %, opening a “monetary policy calibration cycle” after a 75 bp tightening in March–June 2025 and a pause since January. Copom flagged softer activity, above-target and de-anchored inflation expectations, global volatility and fiscal risks, and said any further easing will be data-dependent.