The Portuguese Insurance Regulator has announced the winners of the fifth ASF Research Award, with Pedro Raimundo dos Santos Lopes receiving the top prize for a machine learning study on wildfire risk in mainland Portugal. The winning work examines wildfire severity and the probability that an ignition develops into a major fire, in an area the ASF linked to growing relevance for the insurance sector because of the frequency of ignitions in Portugal, the economic impact of large fires and climate change scenarios. The jury also gave honorable mentions to three papers: a study on mortality rate modeling under International Financial Reporting Standard 17 and Solvency II for life insurance liabilities and capital requirements, a study on the role of corporate income tax in developing the second pillar of social security and supporting pension sustainability, and a study on insurer brand positioning in Portugal. The fifth edition covered economics, mathematics and technology applied to the sectors supervised by the ASF and attracted 18 submissions, the highest number since the award was established in 2021. The ASF said the next edition of the award will focus on law and the humanities.
Portuguese Insurance Regulator (ASF)2026-07-01
Portuguese Insurance Regulator awards fifth ASF Research Award to wildfire risk study
The Portuguese Insurance Regulator awarded the fifth ASF Research Award to a study using machine learning to model wildfire risk in mainland Portugal. It also recognized three papers on mortality modeling under IFRS 17 and Solvency II, pension sustainability and insurer brand positioning. The next edition will focus on law and the humanities.