The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data released the August 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations, showing a small uptick in short-term inflation expectations while medium- and longer-term expectations were unchanged. Labor market sentiment deteriorated, with households reporting higher unemployment and job-loss probabilities and a sharp drop in the perceived ability to find a new job. Median one-year-ahead inflation expectations rose 0.1 percentage point to 3.2%, while three-year (3.0%) and five-year (2.9%) expectations were steady; inflation uncertainty increased at the one- and three-year horizons. Mean unemployment expectations increased to 39.1% and the perceived probability of losing a job over the next 12 months ticked up to 14.5%, while the perceived probability of finding a job if displaced fell 5.8 percentage points to 44.9%, the lowest since the series began in June 2013. Household income growth expectations held at 2.9% and expected spending growth edged up to 5.0%; perceptions of current credit access improved but expectations for future credit availability worsened somewhat, and the perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment rose to 13.1%.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York 2025-09-08
Federal Reserve Bank of New York releases August 2025 consumer expectations survey showing one-year inflation expectations up and job-finding outlook at a series low
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's August 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations shows a slight rise in short-term inflation expectations to 3.2%, with medium- and longer-term expectations stable. Labor market sentiment worsened, with increased unemployment expectations and a decline in the perceived ability to find new employment. Household income growth expectations remained at 2.9%, while expected spending growth increased to 5.0%, and credit access perceptions showed mixed results.