The Thailand Office of Insurance Commission has outlined the framework for its 2025 OIC Stress Test and briefed life and non-life insurers on the annual exercise, which will use a top-down scenario approach to assess the resilience of the insurance system under simulated shocks with potential financial stability and systemic risk implications. The stress test is being coordinated with the Bank of Thailand and the Securities and Exchange Commission to support a more comprehensive assessment of risks across Thailand’s financial sector. The 2025 design emphasises risk drivers spanning both insurance-specific and macroeconomic factors, including US economic policy developments, geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, and a slowing global economy. The adverse scenario assumes recessionary conditions with falling household income and higher inflation linked to increased labour and spare-parts costs, alongside climate-related impacts that raise healthcare utilisation and medical expenses and increase the frequency and severity of natural disasters. Risk factor calibration has been refined using each insurer’s business profile based on the Internal OIC Model with customised parameters, with participating firms expected to draw on historical data, actuarial models and forward-looking assessments to support solvency and liquidity monitoring as part of preventive supervision.

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