The Board of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) kept the key policy rate at 15 % per annum, shelving the further easing envisaged in its January forecast amid higher-than-expected energy prices, a pick-up in February headline inflation to 7.6 % y/y (core 7.0 % y/y) and a marked deterioration in households’ inflation expectations. The rate has been lowered by a cumulative 50 bp since January 2026 after being held at 15.5 % through most of 2025. By maintaining “appropriate monetary conditions” the NBU seeks to preserve the attractiveness of hryvnia assets and FX-market sustainability; retail term deposits and domestic government securities continue to expand, while bank lending is growing at over 30 % y/y. Official inflows of USD 5.5 bn since the start of the year have helped keep international reserves close to USD 55 bn, supporting exchange-rate stability despite recent USD strength. The central bank highlighted the Middle East conflict as a new driver of global energy costs and inflation risk. It signalled that it will refrain from further cuts while risks persist and stands ready to raise rates and deploy additional measures should pressures intensify.
National Bank of Ukraine 2026-03-19
NBU Keeps Key Policy Rate Unchanged at 15%
The National Bank of Ukraine held its key policy rate at 15 %, postponing the easing outlined in January amid higher energy prices, February inflation of 7.6 % y/y and worsening expectations. Stressing the need to sustain hryvnia demand and reserves of almost USD 55 bn, the NBU signalled it will pause cuts and stands ready to raise rates if external and inflationary pressures grow.